Hurricane Idalia is expected to intensify Tuesday before making landfall on Florida’s northern Gulf Coast Wednesday morning. The worst impacts are expected in the state’s Big Bend area, but hazards will extend hundreds of miles from where the eye of the storm comes ashore, with some locations in Florida already starting to experience impacts.
Skip to end of carouselThe forecast cone of Hurricane Idalia as predicted by the National Hurricane Center. (NOAA/NHC)
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We’re tracking the path of Hurricane Idalia; it’s expected to hit Florida’s Gulf Coast as a Category 3 storm Wednesday morning.
Hurricane warnings, tropical storm warnings, storm surge warnings and flood watches have been issued for many locations across Florida, southeast Georgia and coastal South Carolina because of the potential for strong winds, flooding rain and, in some cases, a life-threatening storm surge as high as 15 feet.
Here we take a look at the forecast for several cities. It’s important to remember that any change in the track, intensity or size of the storm could lead to forecast changes for any given location.
Tampa
The Tampa Bay area remains under a hurricane warning, with the greatest threat being a potentially life-threatening storm surge. Flooding, some wind damage and several tornadoes are possible as well, with the worst impacts expected Tuesday evening through Wednesday.
Storm surge: The storm surge could reach 4 to 7 feet above normally dry land Tuesday night and Wednesday, especially if the peak surge coincides with high tide.
Rainfall: A flood watch is in effect due to the potential for a general 4 to 8 inches of rain, with locally heavier amounts possible.
Wind: The National Weather Service in Tampa puts the peak sustained wind forecast at 30 to 40 mph, with gusts to 70 mph from early Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon.
Tallahassee
Tallahassee is under a hurricane warning. Flooding and destructive winds are the greatest threats, with some tornadoes possible as well. The worst impacts are expected Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.
Rainfall: A flood watch is in effect due to the potential for a general 3 to 8 inches of rain with isolated higher amounts possible.
Wind: The latest forecast from the National Weather Service in Tallahassee is for peak sustained winds reaching 20 to 30 mph and gusts up to 60 mph. But it warned residents to prepare for much stronger gusts, possibly exceeding 110 mph, as a small shift in the storm track, size and intensity could bring destructive winds into the area
Storm surge: Tallahassee is far enough inland that storm surge flooding is not a concern. However, coastal areas to the south of Tallahassee, including Saint Marks and Panacea, could see a life-threatening storm surge of 6 to 9 feet above normally dry ground early Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.
Sarasota
Sarasota remains under a storm surge warning, tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch. Storm surge impacts are already unfolding. The worst impacts, including flooding rain, strong winds and possibly tornadoes, are expected Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.
Wind: The National Weather Service puts the peak sustained wind forecast at 35 to 45 mph with gusts to 70 mph from early Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning.
Storm surge: The storm surge could reach 3 to 5 feet above normally dry land through Wednesday. The Weather Service warns that impacts from storm surge are already underway and that those in the warned area should remain sheltered in a safe location.
Rainfall: A flood watch is in effect due to the potential of a general 3 to 6 inches of rain with locally higher amounts possible.
Gainesville
Gainesville remains under a hurricane warning. The greatest threats are strong winds and flooding rain, with tornadoes possible as well. The worst impacts are expected Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.
Wind: The latest forecast from the National Weather Service in Jacksonville is for peak sustained winds reaching 25 to 35 mph and gusts to 55 mph. However, a small shift in the storm track, size or intensity could bring gusts over 110 mph and much more serious impacts.
Rainfall: A flood watch is in effect due to the potential of a general 3 to 6 inches of rain with locally higher amounts possible.
Jacksonville
Jacksonville remains under a tropical storm warning. The worst conditions, including strong winds, flooding rain and possible tornadoes, are expected Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.
Wind: The latest forecast from the National Weather Service in Jacksonville is for winds to remain below hurricane-force, with peak sustained winds reaching 25 to 35 mph and gusts to 55 mph. However, a small shift in the storm track, size and intensity could bring stronger winds and more severe impacts.
Storm surge: The storm surge could reach 1 to 3 feet above normally dry land starting Tuesday evening before subsiding late Wednesday.
Rainfall: Around 1 to 3 inches of rain is forecast with locally higher amounts possible which would potentially result in flooding.
Savannah
Savannah remains under a tropical storm warning and storm surge watch. The greatest threats are strong winds, rainfall and coastal flooding, with the worst impacts expected Wednesday morning through early Thursday morning.
Wind: The latest forecast from the Weather Service is for peak sustained winds to reach 30 to 40 mph and gusts to 55 mph Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning.
Rainfall: A flood watch is in effect due to the potential of a general 3 to 6 inches of rain with locally higher amounts possible.
Storm surge: Up to 2 to 4 feet of storm surge inundation are predicted Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning.
Probable impacts from the wind, rain and surge
Where wind gusts approach 70 mph, potential impacts include some damage to building exteriors, porches, carports, garages, windows, doors, sheds and mobile homes, according to the Weather Service. Scattered power outages are possible, and become widespread in areas with above-ground lines. Travel by vehicle or foot is difficult.
For areas that see gusts over 110 mph, the winds could produce structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failure, the Weather Service said. Mobile homes would be completely destroyed and many roads would become impassable because of downed trees and debris. Power outages would be widespread.
Flooding from heavy rain could cause rivers, small streams and creaks to overflow, possibly sending floodwaters into structures and resulting in rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots and poor drainage areas, the Weather Service said. Some streets could take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions could become hazardous with road and bridge closures.
Coastal areas that experience a storm surge of at least several feet can expect flooding that could damage or wash away buildings and leave some locations uninhabitable for an extended period, according to the National Weather Service. Roads could be severely flooded or washed out while marinas, docks, boardwalks and piers could take on major damage.
Areas where the surge is closer to 1 to 3 feet should expect localized flooding mainly along shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland where higher surge waters come ashore. Dangerous driving conditions are possible in places where surge water covers the road. Marinas, docks, boardwalks and piers could experience minor to moderate damage, according to the Weather Service.